Geelong is the overwhelming favorite heading into this yr’s AFL grand last, having gained an unbelievable 15 video games in a row en path to the massive dance.
Regardless of Sydney driving its personal nine-game profitable streak, Geelong has been the favored choose to take out this yr’s premiership.
Bookmakers have the Cats as $1.47 favourites, with the Swans paying $2.62, per SportsBet.
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The Swans are certainly one of 4 groups to have overwhelmed the Cats this yr, having prevailed by 30 factors on the SCG in spherical two, the night time Lance Franklin breached the 1000-goal barrier.
In line with former AFL coach Ross Lyon, there are a number of bins the Swans should tick with a view to topple the Cats on the most important stage of all.
METHOD OF BALL MOVEMENT
Each groups boast elite offensive and defence profiles, with Geelong rating second in factors for and the Swans fourth. The Cats are first in factors towards whereas the Swans are fourth.
Whereas their rankings offensively are comparable, the strategies are fairly completely different, as confirmed by the 2 groups’ kick-to-handball ratios and mark-play on percentages.
The Cats common 1.3 kicks per handball, whereas the Swans have a two-to-one kick-to-handball ratio.
Geelong is extra prepared to run the ball, enjoying on from a mark 32 per cent of the time, whereas the Swans achieve this after simply 16 per cent of their marks.
“Actually merely, they’re each actually flying in assault and defence, however they have completely different types with the ball,” Lyon advised 9’s Footy Categorised this week.
“Geelong are a ‘go ahead’ workforce now, final yr they went again and sideways.
“They’re 1.3 kicks per handball whereas Sydney are two to at least one, they seem to be a kicking workforce who controls the ball.
“They seem to be a bit extra managed and methodical and it’ll come in useful towards Geelong’s roll-off defence.
“They (Geelong’s defenders) get again on you, they need lengthy, excessive entries (inside 50) after which they counter-punch. Final yr they’d slowly chip, however now they pull the set off.
“Sydney aren’t going to bomb it in once they’ve bought time and house, they’ll shift it off the road and decrease their eyes.”
Sydney grades extraordinarily effectively in plenty of key defensive acts, and it will must deliver its defensive ferocity to the MCG if it is any hope of beating the Cats.
In Geelong’s 4 losses this yr, their opponents have had a stress issue of 185, whereas that quantity drops to 177 in video games Geelong has win. For comparability, the Swans have averaged a stress issue of 187 all through the season, which suggests they’re going to be capable to deliver the warmth.
Sydney’s stress issue is the perfect within the league and it additionally ranks favourably in deal with differential (third), deal with effectivity (first), post-clearance stress issue (first) and forward-half stress issue (fifth).
Spend time dawdling on the soccer and the Swans tacklers will merely devour you. The grand last will solely heighten their starvation to get the footy again once they lose possession.
”That is why Sydney may have perception, they’re the No.1 stress workforce within the comp,” Lyon stated.
“In all facets they will stress. In the event you’re John Longmire, you are saying, ‘Don’t be concerned about what Collingwood did, that is what we will do’.
“The numbers say it: the groups which have introduced warmth to the Cats, the Cats are 50 per cent win-loss.”
Sydney is not the one workforce that may deliver the stress both, with the Cats capable of flip it up with the perfect of them, notably in their very own ahead half.
Whereas the dual towers Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins have rightly acquired a variety of the plaudits, Geelong additionally possesses an elite group of small forwards in Gryan Miers, Tyson Stengle and Brad Shut.
Lyon says the trio’s stress should be at their greatest to cease the Swans’ deadly transition recreation off halfback.
Groups who do not have sound forward-half stress have been reduce up all yr by the Swans’ halfbacks and wingers. In the event you stand round as a ahead, the likes of Nick Blakey and Errol Gulden will wreak havoc going the opposite approach.
”Nobody bounces off halfback higher than the Swans,” Lyon stated.
“If they will get their run and their kick going by means of the hall, they’re laborious to cease. However what do we all know in regards to the Cats’ small forwards? Positive, they kick objectives, however they’re the No.1 chase-down tacklers within the AFL with Shut, Stengle and Miers.”
KEEPING STEWART BUSY
Tom Stewart is the AFL’s intercept king, and he is capable of wreak havoc in Geelong’s defensive 50 as a result of a sensible quirk Chris Scott appears to deploy in matches.
Geelong’s preliminary last demolition job towards Brisbane was the proper instance of this, as Scott rolled Mark Blicavs into the ruck in stoppages across the floor whereas shifting first-choice ruckman Rhys Stanley behind the soccer.
Stanley went straight for the person Stewart would usually be tasked with defending, Brisbane’s Joe Daniher, which allowed Stewart to roam free virtually as a goal-keeper.
Sydney’s forwards should be diligent in making certain Stewart must deal with the defensive aspect of the soccer moderately than merely launching counter-attacks.
“Horse (Swans coach John Longmire) has usually been extra conservative, Chris Scott will throw a bit of bit extra at you,” Lyon stated of the 2 coaches’ method.
Will probably be fascinating to see what tactical wrinkle Scott throws Longmire’s approach within the opening quarter or so, and the way lengthy it takes for the Swans to regulate.
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